Sales Stock Surge
While London Prices Slide

April 2026 | Page 2

Key Headlines

• Stock Surge: Agents' portfolios swelled by 31,569 properties in March. Negative for pricing as demand is on the back foot from rising mortgage rates.
• New Instructions at Highest Since 2008: New instructions in March were the highest since 2008 — 1% more than the already bloated March 2025. Scotland and London saw the largest YoY increases in supply.
• Prices Edge Up But Outlook Darkens: Mix-adjusted average price for E&W jumped 0.4% in March. Annualised growth remains poor at just 0.5%.
• Regional Divergence: Prices rose in all regions except London where the average slipped 0.4%. Largest regional rise was North East (+1.5%) where supply is relatively restrained.
• Time on Market Mixed Signals: The flood of new instructions has brought down the Typical Time on Market (median) for unsold properties. However, the mean time on market remains relatively high indicating a significant number of properties are hanging around longer, consistent with heightened stock levels.
• North East Leads, London Slides: North East is the top regional growth leader at +3.0% YoY, followed by North West at +2.7%. Greater London is the weakest performer with an annualised decline of 1.3%.
• UK Rents in Decline: UK rents are in decline overall. Mix-adjusted average asking rent has fallen 2.3% since April 2025 despite a 10% fall in supply. Affordability constraints are forcing landlords' hands to avoid costly void periods.
• London Rental Market Mixed: Hackney and Islington show rent rises of 12.8% and 11.4%, while Kensington and Hounslow indicate falls of 6.6% and 7.1%.

April 2026 | Page 3

Market Overview

The UK property market heads into choppy waters. A vast swathe of new sales inventory has arrived on agents' books, priced mainly at pre-Gulf crisis levels, while demand is being strangled by rising mortgage rates. As of now, the Straits of Hormuz remain effectively closed to normal maritime traffic and quite bizarrely the US navy has been sent to 'blockade a blockade'. Vast amounts of contradictory claims in the media only add to the uncertainty.

The knock-on effect of rising energy costs, and therefore inbound inflation, means that instead of the pre-war rate cut expectations we now have rate rise expectations. The only real question is how many rate rises and that answer depends on how long the Straits remain closed. Despite the fragile ceasefire currently in place, the conflict seems far from resolved with both parties poles apart in terms of their respective demands. Hence, the Straits look set to remain under the control of Iran with little or no prospect of shipments of oil or gas in the near future.

April 2026 | Page 4

Stock Levels Analysis

Stock levels have leaped back to levels that give cause for concern. Moreover, the flood of new instructions is unlikely to end before the summer. Our data shows a huge leap in inventory during March following the unexpected drop noted during February. The swelling ranks of vendors seeking to exit the market looks set to challenge last year's exceptionally high total.

Source: Home.co.uk Property Search Index

April 2026 | Page 5

Asking Price Trend

Home prices indicated a further seasonal uptick during March of 0.4%, seemingly ignoring the disastrous switch to a rising mortgage rate environment. False optimism was apparent in all regions except Greater London where prices corrected 0.4% on the bad news. Annualised growth continues to be very weak at 0.5%, obviously way behind the current rate of inflation.

Given the rise in mortgage costs and rapidly increasing stock levels, a correction in home prices appears likely in most regions later this year.

Source: Home.co.uk HAPI Index

April 2026 | Page 6

Regional Variation

Since this month marks the 20th anniversary of the Home Asking Price Index, we present a longer view chart. The 20-year price growth across the regions makes for a sobering read. It may come as a shock to many that not one English region, nor Scotland or Wales, has managed to keep up with inflation over this intergenerational time period.

While northern England, Scotland and Wales have fared by far the best over recent years, the longer term winner is London by quite a margin. The current strong performance in the North East is revealed as merely playing catch-up after having been left far behind. Other than these two outliers, the 20-year growth is remarkably consistent across the remaining English regions, Scotland and Wales.

Property investors would have required a net annual return of 4.8% (capital growth plus rent minus costs and tax) to have kept pace with inflation. This is quite feasible in most cases although increased taxation and costly red tape will now be eating into those slim margins. For the simple homeowner who bought with cash, the investment gave a negative real return.

Source: Home.co.uk and Office for National Statistics

April 2026 | Page 7

UK Asking Prices by region

Scotland

£242,421

1m: +0.9%

12m: +2.0%

North East

£208,156

1m: +1.5%

12m: +3.0%

North West

£281,876

1m: +0.5%

12m: +2.7%

Yorks & Humber

£264,071

1m: +0.7%

12m: +1.2%

Wales

£279,204

1m: +0.2%

12m: +2.0%

West Midlands

£312,581

1m: +0.5%

12m: +1.3%

East Midlands

£287,581

1m: +0.8%

12m: +0.1%

East

£394,296

1m: +0.3%

12m: -0.2%

London

£539,721

1m: -0.4%

12m: -1.3%

South East

£447,478

1m: +0.6%

12m: +0.6%

South West

£381,669

1m: +1.0%

12m: 0.0%

April 2026 | Page 8

Time on Market Analysis

Regional Time on Market - April 2026

Source: Home.co.uk | Note: Average = Mean, Typical = Median days on market of unsold property

April 2026 | Page 9

Market Turnover & Real Price Growth

April 2026 | Page 10

Expert Commentary

20th Anniversary Reflections

Over the last twenty years of covering the UK home sales market we have seen more than our fair share of ups and downs. Back in 2006/7 we warned that a major financial crisis was in the making. Later we warned about the perils of Quantitative Easing as vast amounts of newly issued credit was pumped into the 'too big to fail' banks and left the public on the hook for the fraudulent folly of the private sector institutions.

Then the property price crash that followed in late 2008 and continued throughout 2009. The desperate near-zero interest rate policy that followed, which arguably created the greatest asset bubble in history. The wild ride of London property prices in 2013 was particularly notable as the cheap credit poured in pushing up prices at a rate of nearly 20% per annum at its height.

And just when the market appeared to be returning to a more 'normal' state of affairs with rising interest rates and a mild price correction in 2019, along came a pandemic! Well that was the perfect excuse to inject enormous amounts more of newly created money giving rise to inflation that had been unheard of since the 1970's and perhaps the greatest single upward transfer of wealth in history. Sure, property prices soared when we came out of lockdown but inflation then soared a lot higher wiping out those gains in real terms.

Then came the Truss mini-budget that revealed the real structural weakness in the UK finances and caused bond yields to ramp up. This seismic shock wiped away 2.4% of the UK property sales portfolio value in just one month!

Since then the market has partially recovered in terms of transactions but home prices have really just gone sideways, until now. The war in West Asia is just the latest crisis in a long list. Higher energy costs and higher borrowing costs hit almost instantly and the second-order effects on supply chains and producer inflation have yet to be felt. Moreover, the primary effects have not really been fully priced in to the markets, which, including the property market, are near or at all time highs.

The current situation reminds me of the surreal beginning of the 2008 crisis. Prices remained suspended in thin air for quite some time before the true reality of the situation sent prices tumbling. Current pricing seems to be based expectations of a re-opening of the Strait relatively soon and a return to previous energy prices. Unfortunately, this scenario is looking less and less likely. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed the worse the fallout will be.

The money markets have already priced in two hikes in the UK Base Rate before the end of the year and there may well be more to come as the Bank of England clumsily attempts to deal with inflation. Moreover, we may have more nasty surprises to come. Rising bond yields are signalling a possible sovereign debt crisis for heavily indebted countries. We had a brief taste of this with the Truss 'mini-budget' debacle, but this time around no UK Treasury policy changes will be effective in dealing with the cause of the problem in the Persian Gulf.

Even if the Straits were to open now the damage to both production and global supply is already done and it would take a year or so for energy and fertiliser markets to return to a more normal state of affairs. The upshot for the UK property market is a looming market correction where serious vendors will cut their asking prices to sell and others will abandon their sale, perhaps turning to the rental market despite its current poor performance.

Over the last twenty years we have seen many crises come and go. The UK property market has always bounced back given enough time. Let's hope that remains the case. In an ideal world the property market would be really boring and predicable giving a stable and secure investment where capital values are preserved.

On a final note: Thanks to you, our dear readership, for following our market commentary over the last 20 years and wishing you all Peace and Prosperity.

April 2026 | Page 11

About the Home Asking Price Index

The Home.co.uk Asking Price Index was originally devised in association with Calnea Analytics: the statistical consultancy responsible for the production of the official Land Registry House Price Index.

The Home.co.uk Asking Price Index (HAPI) is calculated using a weighting system based on the DCLG (formerly ODPM) Survey of English Housing Stock (published March 2006). This allows for enhanced regional delineation and conforms to the current geographical orthodoxy as set out by the Office of National Statistics.

Methodology Note: Properties above £1m and below £20k are excluded from the calculations.

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